Can We Predict An Outbreak’s Future? – Modeling: Crash Course Outbreak Science #9

When outbreaks happen, we need to be able to predict the course they’ll take in the future, but of course, we can’t run experiments on real people to figure that out. Thankfully we can simulate outbreaks and use models to find out how different scenarios could play out! In this episode of Crash Course Outbreak Science, we’ll look at what models are, how they help predict the course of an outbreak, and how we can use them to manage real-world outbreaks.

This episode of Crash Course Outbreak Science was produced by Complexly in partnership with Operation Outbreak and the Sabeti Lab at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard—with generous support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.

Sources:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118308896
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6002118/
https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Understanding Predictions: What is R-Naught?

https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/